Still swingy

Started down, got up a decent sum, then settled for a smaller win today. I've been playing a bunch of multi-table tourneys this week but my time off from them has me quite rusty. Two bubbles in a $55 and a $44 are a slap in the face, I'll burst one soon.

YTD: +$1846.72

Fluctuation's a bitch

So I didn't take a day off, not one. My valentine was partypoker, sad but better than that Hungry Man TV dinner I was talkin' about in the other blog.

I couldn't win at all over the weekend, and I couldn't lose the past two days. That's just the way it is. Unless you're really good or really bad. But I'm neither. Maybe someday I'll be really good...

YTD: +$1653.47

Taking my medicine, and it's not tasty

I'll admit this bad streak is about half bad streak and half just plain bad play. I blame my bad play on annihilating my HALT limits. Like last night, I was extrememly hungry as it was 2 am and I hadn't eaten for 9 hours, I was angry as I was playing like a donkey, and very tired as I was on two hours sleep since 8 am. That's H, A, and T out of a possible HALT. Not good. A week off or so is in order.

YTD +$1142.65 (yeh it's still positive)

Another rough day and a soothing song

Damn do I hate fluctuation. Not much more to say than that. When this happens, I like to listen to a song that I don't know the true meaning of, but I like to think it's for days like these.

Coldplay - Only Superstition

A copper head, I see.
Has found it's way to me.
It's old, an it's old, an it's old
making me cry.

I sleep but I will not move.
I’m too scared to leave my room.
But I won't be defeated, oh no.

What if cards don't go my way?
Then it's sure to spoil my day.
But in voices loud and clear,
you say to me it's only superstition.

It's only your imagination.
It's only all of the things that you fear,
and the things from which you can’t escape.

Keep clean for the thousandth time.
Stand still and wait in line.
Some numbers are better than others, oh no.

What if cards don't go my way?
Then it's sure to spoil my day.
But in voices loud and clear,
you say to me it's only superstition.

It's only your imagination.
It's only all of the things that you fear,
and the things which you cannot explain.

And it's making me cry, alone.
And it's making me cry.
And it's slipping away, alone.
Oh, I'm slipping away.

It's only superstition, only your imagination.
It's only superstition, only superstition

YTD: +$1730.13

What goes up must come down... temporarily

Good streaks are called streaks because they end at some point. Today it seemed that my draws didn't hit and my favorites didn't hold up. I got busted TWICE by Tom McEvoy, yes the world champ. He sat down at my 1-2 PLO table. The first time he flopped a set of aces over my set of tens, and the second time I semi-bluffed on a flop of 2 3 6 into his flopped nut straight. Oops. Well at least I have a story to tell now.

YTD: + 2039.28

You can't just peddle nuts moving up

...in PLO. When I first got started, that's all I had to do, as this was a winning strategy at the lower limits. But at 1-2 and 2-4, unless you pick your games well, nut peddling will just not do. You can't only raise with aces and you can't only raise when you have the nuts, and I learned this the hard way. Is it a translation from hold 'em that people just can't let AAxx go?

One of my favorite things about PLO is that if you raise the pot preflop and get re-popped, predictable opponents will almost always have AAxx, at least in my experience. While it may be a decent sum to call the reraise, if I have enough left in my stack (the call of the reraise is a small % of your stack), I will take a flop to see if I can bust the likely aces. When they bet out or bet pot when checked to and you flopped a monster or monster draw and you let them know, for some reason they can't let it go (you have to know your opponent here as smart ones will let it go when they don't have the odds to call). Don't quote me on this strategy or anything, but the general idea I'm expressing is that you can't play ABC poker here, you have to think.

By all means I'm still an amateur PLO player but I know I have the ability to learn to think and learn from mistakes, and I hope I can keep improving. I still make idiotic mistakes, and I pay for it, in $. But that's the price of learning.

I wish they had this game in the US as there is a lot of action and I think gamblers would love it.

YTD: +2690.08

Swings

Today was a PLO day. I prepared myself for big swings, and they came. This hand barely put me back up for the day, and it was a suckout. But not a mistake, at least this time. I think that a good percentage of the time he'll have at least one of my outs (A, Q, J) which would put me in the -EV, but either way this is a close call that amplifies the swings of this crazy game.

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $4 BB (8 handed) converter

MP1 ($140)
MP2 ($248.50)
CO ($153.10)
Hero ($347.75)
SB ($286.10)
BB ($547.55)
UTG ($1677.50)
UTG+1 ($207.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Ad, 6h, Ah, 4c.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $4, 2 folds, CO calls $4, Hero raises to $22, SB calls $20, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $18, CO calls $18.

Flop: ($92) Qd, Jc, As (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks, Hero bets $48, SB raises to $233, UTG+1 folds, CO folds, Hero calls $185.

Turn: ($558) Jd (2 players)
SB bets $31.1 (All-In), Hero calls $31.10.

River: ($620.20) 6s (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $620.20

Results in white below:


Outcome: Hero wins $620.20.

After getting checkraised pot on the flop, he HAD to have KT. If I assume he had none of my outs for his other two cards, I would have to call $185 + $31.10 = $216.10 to win $620.20, so I would have to win $216.10/$620.20 x 100% = 34.84% of the time to correctly call down. According to twodimes.net, I win 36.6% of the time:

Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing As Jc Qd
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kc Td 8d 8h 520 63.41 300 36.59 0 0.00 0.634
4c Ad Ah 6h 300 36.59 520 63.41 0 0.00 0.366

EV: [0.366 x ($620.20 - $216.10)] - [0.634 x $216.10] = $10.89


YTD: +$2219.13