Swings

Today was a PLO day. I prepared myself for big swings, and they came. This hand barely put me back up for the day, and it was a suckout. But not a mistake, at least this time. I think that a good percentage of the time he'll have at least one of my outs (A, Q, J) which would put me in the -EV, but either way this is a close call that amplifies the swings of this crazy game.

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $4 BB (8 handed) converter

MP1 ($140)
MP2 ($248.50)
CO ($153.10)
Hero ($347.75)
SB ($286.10)
BB ($547.55)
UTG ($1677.50)
UTG+1 ($207.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Ad, 6h, Ah, 4c.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $4, 2 folds, CO calls $4, Hero raises to $22, SB calls $20, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $18, CO calls $18.

Flop: ($92) Qd, Jc, As (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks, Hero bets $48, SB raises to $233, UTG+1 folds, CO folds, Hero calls $185.

Turn: ($558) Jd (2 players)
SB bets $31.1 (All-In), Hero calls $31.10.

River: ($620.20) 6s (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $620.20

Results in white below:


Outcome: Hero wins $620.20.

After getting checkraised pot on the flop, he HAD to have KT. If I assume he had none of my outs for his other two cards, I would have to call $185 + $31.10 = $216.10 to win $620.20, so I would have to win $216.10/$620.20 x 100% = 34.84% of the time to correctly call down. According to twodimes.net, I win 36.6% of the time:

Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing As Jc Qd
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kc Td 8d 8h 520 63.41 300 36.59 0 0.00 0.634
4c Ad Ah 6h 300 36.59 520 63.41 0 0.00 0.366

EV: [0.366 x ($620.20 - $216.10)] - [0.634 x $216.10] = $10.89


YTD: +$2219.13